Many people make New Year’s resolutions. I don’t.
Because I am a columnist, I make predictions. This is not to say that I am especially good
at it. Last year my efforts produced
decidedly mixed results.
First, I got the easy one right. Given that it was to be Barack Obama’s last
year in office, I expected a bumpy ride.
Since he had nothing to lose, he would be his real self. Indeed, these last few weeks, he has been
more so. He recently did his worst to
damage Israel and help the radical environmentalists.
But I got the big one
wrong. It never occurred to me that
Donald Trump would actually be elected president. Like many in the Never Trump camp, I assumed
that voters would come to their senses.
I was hoping for Rubio, unfortunately he self-destructed before New
Hampshire.
So what comes next? Let’s start with Obama. At one point, I thought he would disappear
into a well-earned oblivion. When he was
no longer in power, the media would stop propping him up. Given his terrible track record, even
Democrats would prefer to forget his tenure.
Now I have decided that
Barack intends to be kibitzer-in-chief.
He will remain in Washington sitting on the sidelines constantly
second-guessing what the new administration does. In light of his inflated ego and rhetorical
skills, unlike his predecessors, he will be unable to resist demonstrating his
brilliance,
As for Hillary, it is more
difficult to say what will happen. It is
doubtful that her wisdom will be in much demand. She might even be under investigation. If so, the question is whether she will be
pardoned. Will Barack do it before he
leaves office or will Trump do it to spare the nation a political circus?
Turning now to Trump, he
will surely press to eliminate Obamacare and reduce taxes. Whether this goes smoothly is another
matter. I hope it does, but I expect
that it will not. There are too many dissonant voices in
Congress; hence many are bound to assert their prerogatives.
With respect to the economy,
I predict that it will grow faster than economists are currently forecasting. Once Trump jettisons the regulations he has
the power to purge, a wave of optimism should surge through the entrepreneurial
class. People may once more think in
terms of what is possible rather than what will be thwarted by the politicians.
Our energy resources should
also grow. All those businesspersons in
Trump’s cabinet will remove the obstacles Obama erected. If so, “all of the above,” with respect to
coal, gas, fracking and nuclear should become a reality as opposed to a slogan.
When moving on to foreign policy,
however, my crystal ball gets clouded. I
do not know how Trump will deal with Putin.
I hope it is with a firm hand. Nor
do I know how vigorous he will be in pursuing ISIS. His pronouncements in these areas have been
too ambiguous to provide a reliable guide.
What is certain is that
whatever he does will be criticized by the media. In retrospect, Ronald Reagan is regarded as a
great president, but at the time the press roundly condemned him. Almost everything done by this former actor
was censured as stupid or vicious.
This included cutting taxes,
building up the military, initiating Star Wars. calling the Soviet Union an
evil empire, demanding that the Berlin Wall be torn down and firing the air
traffic controllers. In every instance,
journalists thought they knew better and told the nation so.
It will be no different with
Trump. We have already witnessed many of
his cabinet choices savaged and his tweets are treated like jokes. We can therefore be confident that virtually
everything he does will be interpreted in the least favorable way.
In other words, do not
expect the country’s foul political climate to improve. Reagan emerged into the sunlight only after
his policies began to succeed. Until
then he was dismissed as a Teflon president who deserved to be treated with
disrespect. It will be the same with
Trump, that is, unless and until his programs pay off.
Melvyn L. Fein, Ph.D.
Professor of Sociology
Kennesaw State University
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