Presidential Prognostications

I am about to go out on a limb and make some predictions.  No, I am not going to tell you who will win the upcoming presidential election.  Although I would say if I knew—I don’t.  Instead I will talk about what Hillary or Donald are likely do if they take office.

Forget get about the campaign rhetoric.  It is mostly a smoke screen.  The goal is to confuse the public, while motivating people to vote as desired.  All that nastiness is about arousing passions, not providing useful information.

Also disregard the campaign promises.  Even if they are genuine, few will be redeemed.  No, now that Labor Day is upon us, it is time to contemplate honestly and dispassionately what sort of president each of the candidates would make.  If I may be blunt, we must decide how can we minimize the damage?

Let’s start with Hillary.  If she has a Republican Congress—and the odds are that Republicans will retain control over the House—her tax plans, college plans, and health plans are dead in the water.  Conservatives will never agree to her more radical proposals.

So what will she do?  First, on the domestic front, she will make sure that ObamaCare remains law.  Second, she will not allow Obama’s regulations to lapse.  Third, she will not lower taxes.  Fourth, she will not deport illegal immigrants.  As a result, the economy is liable to remain in the doldrums. 

Her primary tactic will be to employ executive orders as liberally as her predecessor.  She won’t care what the legislature does; she will legislate by decree.  She will also encourage the bureaucrats to do the same.  Instead of interpreting laws, they will be asked to create them.

As for her foreign policy, it will be a rehash of her performance as Secretary of State.  Hillary is certain that she knows best.  Consequently, she will take matters into her own hands.  History may have demonstrated that her diplomatic judgment is awful, but she does not think so.

The real question is Trump.  Can he provide a superior alternative to what is apt to be a third Obama term?  Even conservatives have questions about his domestic and international skills.  He may have been a successful businessman, but will he be a loose cannon in the Oval office?

 To figure this out, we have to examine what Donald has done, not just what he says.  In this case, history demonstrates that he is an accomplished delegator.  Whereas Hillary wants to be in control of everything, he tends to choose good people and then allow them the discretion to make sensible choices.

Trump is also apparently a good listener.  Before he decides, he solicits guidance from people who know more about an issue than he does.  If so, he is liable to surround himself with competent people who can help him learn what he does not know.  This applies both at home and abroad.

Next, there is Congress.  Legislators like Paul Ryan will not roll over and play dead.  They are, therefore, sure to have input on any tax or immigration initiatives that Trump puts forth.  He will undoubtedly negotiate with them, which means he will have to give in order to get.

The real sticking point is foreign policy.  Can a man with thin skin and a penchant for personal insults refrain from offending our friends or antagonizing our foes?  When he is one-on-one with foreign leaders, will he behave in a way that embarrasses our nation?

My guess is that Trump will control himself.  He is not a stupid man.  He too realizes that so much is at stake he cannot afford to shoot from the hip.  And so once again he will surround himself with experts.  In this case too he will listen and make adjustments.

What is certain is that the folks around Trump will not be the same ones that Clinton would appoint.  They will unquestionably be conservatives—with a sprinkling of libertarians.  In short, the politicians Donald that defeated in the primaries may be the very ones who shape the nature of his administration.

Melvyn L. Fein, Ph.D.

Professor of Sociology

Kennesaw State University