Tuesday, January 3, 2017

A Good New Year?


Many people make New Year’s resolutions.  I don’t.  Because I am a columnist, I make predictions.  This is not to say that I am especially good at it.  Last year my efforts produced decidedly mixed results.
First, I got the easy one right.  Given that it was to be Barack Obama’s last year in office, I expected a bumpy ride.  Since he had nothing to lose, he would be his real self.  Indeed, these last few weeks, he has been more so.  He recently did his worst to damage Israel and help the radical environmentalists.
But I got the big one wrong.  It never occurred to me that Donald Trump would actually be elected president.  Like many in the Never Trump camp, I assumed that voters would come to their senses.  I was hoping for Rubio, unfortunately he self-destructed before New Hampshire.
So what comes next?  Let’s start with Obama.  At one point, I thought he would disappear into a well-earned oblivion.  When he was no longer in power, the media would stop propping him up.  Given his terrible track record, even Democrats would prefer to forget his tenure.
Now I have decided that Barack intends to be kibitzer-in-chief.  He will remain in Washington sitting on the sidelines constantly second-guessing what the new administration does.  In light of his inflated ego and rhetorical skills, unlike his predecessors, he will be unable to resist demonstrating his brilliance,
As for Hillary, it is more difficult to say what will happen.  It is doubtful that her wisdom will be in much demand.  She might even be under investigation.  If so, the question is whether she will be pardoned.  Will Barack do it before he leaves office or will Trump do it to spare the nation a political circus?
Turning now to Trump, he will surely press to eliminate Obamacare and reduce taxes.  Whether this goes smoothly is another matter.  I hope it does, but I expect that it will not.   There are too many dissonant voices in Congress; hence many are bound to assert their prerogatives.
With respect to the economy, I predict that it will grow faster than economists are currently forecasting.  Once Trump jettisons the regulations he has the power to purge, a wave of optimism should surge through the entrepreneurial class.  People may once more think in terms of what is possible rather than what will be thwarted by the politicians.
Our energy resources should also grow.  All those businesspersons in Trump’s cabinet will remove the obstacles Obama erected.  If so, “all of the above,” with respect to coal, gas, fracking and nuclear should become a reality as opposed to a slogan.
When moving on to foreign policy, however, my crystal ball gets clouded.  I do not know how Trump will deal with Putin.  I hope it is with a firm hand.  Nor do I know how vigorous he will be in pursuing ISIS.  His pronouncements in these areas have been too ambiguous to provide a reliable guide.
What is certain is that whatever he does will be criticized by the media.  In retrospect, Ronald Reagan is regarded as a great president, but at the time the press roundly condemned him.  Almost everything done by this former actor was censured as stupid or vicious.
This included cutting taxes, building up the military, initiating Star Wars. calling the Soviet Union an evil empire, demanding that the Berlin Wall be torn down and firing the air traffic controllers.  In every instance, journalists thought they knew better and told the nation so.
It will be no different with Trump.  We have already witnessed many of his cabinet choices savaged and his tweets are treated like jokes.  We can therefore be confident that virtually everything he does will be interpreted in the least favorable way.
In other words, do not expect the country’s foul political climate to improve.  Reagan emerged into the sunlight only after his policies began to succeed.  Until then he was dismissed as a Teflon president who deserved to be treated with disrespect.  It will be the same with Trump, that is, unless and until his programs pay off.
Melvyn L. Fein, Ph.D.
Professor of Sociology
Kennesaw State University


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