Insiders versus Outsiders

According to the conventional wisdom, the candidates for the Republican nomination can be divided into two tracks: the insiders and the outsiders.  It is further believed that given the angry mood of the electorate, the outsiders have an advantage over the so-called establishment types.

I decided to look back at history to see if our past behavior might throw any light on our current situation.  In fact, it does.  This sort of division has been a frequent feature of our presidential campaigns.  While absolute clarity is not possible, several trends emerge.

We can begin with Dwight Eisenhower.  When he sought the Republican nomination, he was considered the outsider.  The insider was Senator Robert Taft, a.k.a. Mr. Republican.  Although Ike had impeccable military and administrative credentials, his political experience was slight.

Next we can move to the contest between John Kennedy and Richard Nixon.  Between these two, the junior senator from Massachusetts was the outsider in comparison with a sitting Vice President.  Moreover, before they squared off, Kennedy had bested another insider in the person of Senator Hubert Humphrey.

Nixon himself did not become President until he was pitted against Humphrey.  But then after he resigned and the insider congressman Gerald Ford became our chief executive, he lost his bid for office in his own right to another outsider, namely Jimmy Carter, the reform governor of Georgia.

But then Carter himself fell to another insurgent.  The former actor, Ronald Reagan, although he had been a two-term governor of California, was considered a political outsider who challenged the establishment of his party.  This made people nervous, but he was elected anyway.

Reagan’s successor, the consummate insider, George Bush the elder, was able to defeat Michael Dukakis, but he could not fend off the combination of Ross Perot and Bill Clinton.  Clinton, the comeback kid and governor of the small state of Arkansas might one day dominate the Democratic Party, but then he was very much the outsider.

Eventually George Bush the younger was able to wrest the office away from Al Gore.  Between these two, Bush, while governor of Texas, was the outsider when opposed to another sitting Vice President.  Despite his lineage, his personal experience with national politics was limited.

Which brings us to Barack Obama versus John McCain.  Once more the outsider emerged victorious.  Although Obama was then a junior senator, he actively campaigned against Washington.  He was going to come to town and clean up the mess made by the career politicians.

All in all, Americans seem to have had a love affair with outsiders.  When we consider the many other establishment types who have been rejected for our highest office, this becomes more evident.  Thus, Senator John Kerry, Senator Robert Dole, Vice President Walter Mondale, and New York Governor Thomas Dewey were all frustrated in their electoral hopes.

If we examine what the winners had in common, it turns out not merely to be their outsider status.  Most, in their own ways, were inspirational.  They promised to save us by being different from the hacks that preceded them.  Either by dint of their personalities or promised reforms, they would make our nation whole again.

Americans, it seems, are chronic idealists.  But more than this, they want to be rescued by a charismatic Pied Piper.  Strike up the band and sing a siren song of deliverance and they will follow.  For all the talk about the importance of experience and accomplishments, as long as they believe a candidate is sincere, they care little for his or her credentials.

This does not bode well for Hillary Clinton or Jeb Bush.  What it means for Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Mario Rubio, Chris Christie, or Bernie Sanders is not fully clear.  Whether they are insiders or outsiders is still under debate.  As importantly, the voters must determine which among these they can trust.

Clearly idealistic smoke can get in our eyes.  We ought, therefore, be careful.

Melvyn L. Fein, Ph.D.

Professor of Sociology

Kennesaw State University