According to the
conventional wisdom, the candidates for the Republican nomination can be
divided into two tracks: the insiders and the outsiders. It is further believed that given the angry
mood of the electorate, the outsiders have an advantage over the so-called
establishment types.
I decided to look back at
history to see if our past behavior might throw any light on our current
situation. In fact, it does. This sort of division has been a frequent feature
of our presidential campaigns. While
absolute clarity is not possible, several trends emerge.
We can begin with Dwight
Eisenhower. When he sought the
Republican nomination, he was considered the outsider. The insider was Senator Robert Taft, a.k.a.
Mr. Republican. Although Ike had
impeccable military and administrative credentials, his political experience
was slight.
Next we can move to the
contest between John Kennedy and Richard Nixon.
Between these two, the junior senator from Massachusetts was the outsider
in comparison with a sitting Vice President.
Moreover, before they squared off, Kennedy had bested another insider in
the person of Senator Hubert Humphrey.
Nixon himself did not become
President until he was pitted against Humphrey.
But then after he resigned and the insider congressman Gerald Ford
became our chief executive, he lost his bid for office in his own right to
another outsider, namely Jimmy Carter, the reform governor of Georgia.
But then Carter himself fell
to another insurgent. The former actor,
Ronald Reagan, although he had been a two-term governor of California, was
considered a political outsider who challenged the establishment of his
party. This made people nervous, but he
was elected anyway.
Reagan’s successor, the
consummate insider, George Bush the elder, was able to defeat Michael Dukakis,
but he could not fend off the combination of Ross Perot and Bill Clinton. Clinton, the comeback kid and governor of the
small state of Arkansas might one day dominate the Democratic Party, but then
he was very much the outsider.
Eventually George Bush the
younger was able to wrest the office away from Al Gore. Between these two, Bush, while governor of
Texas, was the outsider when opposed to another sitting Vice President. Despite his lineage, his personal experience
with national politics was limited.
Which brings us to Barack
Obama versus John McCain. Once more the
outsider emerged victorious. Although
Obama was then a junior senator, he actively campaigned against Washington. He was going to come to town and clean up the
mess made by the career politicians.
All in all, Americans seem
to have had a love affair with outsiders.
When we consider the many other establishment types who have been
rejected for our highest office, this becomes more evident. Thus, Senator John Kerry, Senator Robert
Dole, Vice President Walter Mondale, and New York Governor Thomas Dewey were
all frustrated in their electoral hopes.
If we examine what the
winners had in common, it turns out not merely to be their outsider
status. Most, in their own ways, were
inspirational. They promised to save us
by being different from the hacks that preceded them. Either by dint of their personalities or
promised reforms, they would make our nation whole again.
Americans, it seems, are chronic
idealists. But more than this, they want
to be rescued by a charismatic Pied Piper.
Strike up the band and sing a siren song of deliverance and they will
follow. For all the talk about the
importance of experience and accomplishments, as long as they believe a
candidate is sincere, they care little for his or her credentials.
This does not bode well for
Hillary Clinton or Jeb Bush. What it
means for Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Mario Rubio, Chris Christie, or Bernie
Sanders is not fully clear. Whether they
are insiders or outsiders is still under debate. As importantly, the voters must determine
which among these they can trust.
Clearly idealistic smoke can
get in our eyes. We ought, therefore, be
careful.
Melvyn L. Fein, Ph.D.
Professor of Sociology
Kennesaw State University